According to the study conducted by ManpowerGroup, in the II quarter of 2017, Slovenian employers will start actively looking for new employees. The ratio of the companies planning to expand the staff and the companies that are going to reduce the staff has never been such positive for the entire research history since 2011.
Experts predict an increase in employment by 27%. The growth will make 22% taking into account the seasonal correlation. In the first quarter, the record indicators were observed: 16% of companies forecasted expansion of staff, 3% announced a reduction of staff and 79% of companies did not plan to make changes in staff (the data for the second quarter are given in Table 1).
As compared to the neighbouring countries, employers in Slovenia are more optimistic: with seasonality considered, the Hungarian (17%) and Polish (12%) companies forecast high growth of employment. While in Austria, employers expect employment growth by 5%, in Germany—by 7%, and in Italy—by 2%. That is, local companies are more likely to cut staff than recruit new personnel. In terms of employment growth, Slovenia leads the world rankings with 14%, whereas in Hungary (2nd place), the rate is 7%, and 6% in Brazil.
Table 1. A survey of employers about the prospects of employing new personnel. Source: ManpowerGroup, a study of personnel potential.
“Over the past three quarters, we have fixed high trust of employers and evaluate this year as an extremely promising one for the labour market in Slovenia. Employers use modern recruitment strategies, and the labour market is characterized by trust and visible activity of all its subjects. Once again, we are faced with a shortage of personnel for a number of professions, but we are giving a positive outlook. Many companies take into account the current market specifics, adopt digital technology and follow current trends, in particular, provide new jobs for the future and encourage professional development. In general, human resource expectations of employers are quite high,” Robert Vovk, the Manpower Director, commented on the study results.
Most employment opportunities are in manufacturing, where employment forecast is 38% and, taking into account the seasonal components, the figure is 33%. As compared to the previous quarter, the indicator grew by 8%, and at an average annual level—by 28%. The construction sphere is slightly inferior to manufacturing, where the employment rate is 34%, and, taking into account the seasonal components, the figure is 30%. As compared to the last year’s indicator, employers expect a growth of 24%.
Finding a job in Slovenia will be simplified for those working in the field of business and finance, insurance and real estate, where the figure makes 37%, and, taking into account the seasonality, it is 24%. The growth at an average annual level will reach 16%.
In the second quarter, the number of vacancies in the hospitality industry will grow, which is understandable. The growth is estimated at 38% (without seasonal correlation). In comparison with a similar last year’s forecast, the total employment will increase by 19%.
Table 2. Prediction of seasonal employment in the second quarter of the year 2017. From the top — by industries (from left to right: manufacturing; construction; business and finance; hospitality and hotel business; transport, logistics and communications; electricity, water and gas supply; mining and stone processing; wholesale and retail trade; public sector and social services; agriculture, fisheries and forestry). From the bottom — by the form of enterprise: micro, small, medium, large.
Finding a job in Slovenia will be the hardest task in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, as well as in public administration and social services, where, over the same period last year, the expected rate of increase in employment is only 4%.
The most active players in the labour market will be employers in South-Eastern Slovenia. The net employment forecast will amount to 35% (if taking into account the seasonal components—32%), and at an average annual level, the indicator is 26%. In three other regions, there will be no substantial difference (23–25%). Taking into account the seasonality, the growth will amount to 18% in the Central and North-Eastern Slovenia and 21% in the South-West of Slovenia, where the average level of growth is 14%. In the two remaining regions, the same indicator will be 8% and 9%, respectively.
In the second quarter, it is planned that firms with the staff of over 250 people will hire the most workers. Their forecast, as compared to the similar last year’s indicator, improved by 33%. In total, 55% of large companies plan to widen their staffs. Only 1% of companies is going to reduce staff, while the remaining companies do not expect personnel changes.
In the category of medium-sized companies (50–249 employees), the employment forecast, as compared to the last year’s similar indicator, improved by 17%. This group had the biggest number of companies (4%), which projected downsizing in the next quarter. The lowest level of changes is expected in the microcompanies. Besides, 82% of them do not intend to change the staff.