The Current Economic Indicators of Slovenia Exceed Expectations

 Boštjan Vasle, Umar in his interview with Delo on the economic scenario for 2016.

Ljubljana. First of all, thanks to the good structure of exports, this year Slovenia shows the macroeconomic results, which are surpassing the forecasts of experts. In the second quarter, the GDP exceeded the same period last year by 2.7%. The trends are more favourable than the forecasts that promised a growth rate of less than 2% for this year.

The Director of the Department for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (Umar) Boštjan Vasle answered the question on whether he was surprised by the current favourable economic trends as follows, “In fact, the Surs data released today are somewhat superior to those forecasts, which we formulated at the beginning of the year. However, on the other hand, they are similar to the data that we have been obtaining for the last few months from the economic sector, in particular regarding the export of Slovenian industrial products as well as on the labour market. We have been observing the positive dynamics for several months in a row, when the indicators are slightly higher than our forecasts and expectations of all other institutions engaged in forecasting at the beginning of the year.”

In particular, the positive dynamics of exports is observed this year, because the statistics shows that we had 5.9% of export growth in the first quarter and already 7.5% in the second quarter. How can you explain this?

A positive trend of the export growth was already demonstrated last year. Back at that time, we linked that fact to two factors — firstly, the international competitive situation, the gradual strengthening of growth and a reduction of uncertainty in the economy and financial markets, while the second factor at that time was the best export competitiveness of the Slovenian economy after the crisis.

The companies conducted a rotation of personnel, improved the dynamics of employment, and also increased the workflow productivity. These are the reasons, for which our share in the international markets has begun to increase. In the spring, we suggested that these processes will continue, but the trends were even more pronounced than we expected.

On the other hand, the catalytic role was played by the fact that today some of the risks associated with the outcomes of the referendum in the UK have not been sprung to life. They have not affected the dynamics of growth in the EU and Slovenia, which have a positive impact on the macroeconomic indicators of the second half of the year.